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Study of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak in India



Vaishali Deshwal1, *, Vimal Kumar1
1 Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Meerut Institute of Engineering and Technology, 250005 Meerut, India


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Creative Commons License
© 2021 Deshwala and Kumar

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

* Address correspondence to this author at Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Meerut Institute of Engineering and Technology, 250005 Meerut, India; E-mail: dvaishali109@gmail.com


Abstract

Background:

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has been recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March, 2020.

Objective:

To identify various factors that can increase coronavirus spread in India and predict COVID-19 cases up to 27th December, 2020, minimum and maximum number of deaths due to COVID-19 in India.

Methods:

This work predicts COVID-19 cases, the minimum and the maximum number of deaths due to COVID-19 in India based on the infection rate and suspected cases.

Results:

Our result shows that the number of COVID-19 cases will increase exponentially in India to approximately 859421415 cases by 27th December 2020.

Conclusion:

The spread of COVID-19 in India depends on a lot of factors such as religious congregation, social contact structure, low testing rates, identification of COVID-19 suspects, measures such as lockdown and sealing of hot stop, etc. taken by the Indian government. In India, lockdown proved to be a good decision.

Keywords: Prediction, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Tablighi Jammat, Pandemic, Outbreak, Disease, SARS-CoV-2.